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Is the global consumer starting to capitulate? Todays European retail sales showed a very weak December read and while it’s choppy pretty clearly weak to end ‘22. Similar to what we saw in US, UK, AUS thru Dec. European aggregate retail sales very weak in Dec:
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On a year over year basis seeing very weak end of the year:
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But this is not just a European story, we are also seeing weakening of demand in the US as well.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
Jan 27
PCE report highlights a broad based deceleration of household demand. Nominal income slowing, nominal spending weakening, headline PCE inflation slowing and core remaining low. In line with retail sales and employment report wages and indicates HH feeling the pinch. Thread:
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Also seeing similar weakness in the UK for the second half of 22 and a worsening momentum in the late year.
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Also a pretty my terrible Dec retail sales number as well for Australia, even accounting for the big November Black Friday sales.
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The consumer has been critical to making this expansion continue. The signs are that the drags from rising costs and negative real wage growth is starting to weigh on demand. There are limits to the amount of spending that can continue when savings is being drawn down.
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A few months ago I penciled out the excess savings for the US consumer and it looked like summer 23 was when the consumer would start to run into issues. If these pce figures are accurate it looks like consumers may be moving faster than originally guessed.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
23 Nov 2022
Replying to @BobEUnlimited
There is only one way for households to make this work - they have to dissave. And that is exactly what they have been doing. Drawing down the large stock of transfer payments collected in the covid period. How long can this last? Chart below shows some scenarios.
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It should be expected that the most rate sensitive parts of the economy have slowed a lot. What this cycle will turn on is the consumer. So it’s critical to squint at the consumer demand numbers to see if it continues. Bc if the consumer capitulates, what will drive growth?
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Replying to @BobEUnlimited
US clearly overdid pandemic stimulation. Households amassed $2.7 trillion in extra savings at the end of 2021 per Moody’s Analytics. What if Jan NFP was an anomaly that gets revised downward? Look out below. Valuations have to matter at some point.

Feb 6, 2023 · 3:24 PM UTC
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