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Convinced recessions are here & groupthink at central banks made it worse. Proud grandad of Clare, Eliza, Gus, Hadley, Henry, Isla, Kinsley, Lincoln and Oliver
Hanover, NH, USA
Joined April 2012
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
Just back from fighting my way through the throng at the rush hour rally at Trump Tower. #Zero
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
I remember your tweets from yesterday! I'm very jealous, not only of such a drive across the USA but we're looking forward to visits to see our grandchildren this year! 'Only' 350 and 150 miles away though
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
The Federal Home Loan Bank System raised $304 billion in debt last week as it shored up liquidity to help banks. Total outstanding advances from the FHLBs now likely exceed a record $1.1 trillion, even more than in 2008: Barclays strategist Joseph Abate bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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FHLB Issues $304 Billion in a Week as Banks Boost Liquidity - Total outstanding advances from the FHLBs now likely exceed $1.1 trillion, That’s likely a record, surpassing the system’s lending during the 2008 financial crisis.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Central bank reaction to the banking crisis is too little, too late already taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/
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So mpc members have ben raising rates to help banks but instead they destroyed them. Brilliant all in the name of slowing inflation but they failed at that too. Groupthink seems a bit of a problem what?
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wonder how the bankers who got all those bonuses will give back millions to cover the losses?
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How safe are British banks, pension and hedge funds and other financial institutions? Car and student loans and mortgages likely already in trouble. What about those who held long low interest bonds? When they go down will the bankers who got bonuses share in the losses?
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We don't need MPC members like Catherine Mann telling us banks need higher rates so they can crash the economy in search of lower inflation and collapsing living standards all that groupthink was always dangerous
as Andy Levin and I made clear for @imf
imf.org/en/Publications/fand…
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
This from @RichardJMurphy & @D_Blanchflower is worth a read.
Tl;dr: the very thing central banks have done to address issues in markets (rate hikes & reversing money printing) has backfired. The banking system is defective & creaking again. And the clock is ticking to fix it.
@D_Blanchflower and I have issued a press release on how we see the banking crisis developing. We think there is a very real contagion risk that central banks need to respond to very urgently with rate cuts over the next few days. The release is in the rest of this thread.
Show this thread
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
The #Fed is the world economy's central bank, the safety valve for international liquidity and the transmission mechanism for global economic activity—spoils of US hegemonic power. By implication, the Fed's violence of monetary austerity is the engineering of a global recession.
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
Good stuff guys. I'll post a related argument: why not restore the capacity of the CB to buy bonds directly from Treasury, and separate solvency (which CBs are destroying) from interest rate setting?
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In UK we need to hear from @hmtreasury about what they are doing to reverse austerity budget & @bankofengland on what they are doing to prevent financial meltdown. Rate cuts seem the obvious start.....financial conditions tightened causing all forecasts to be too optimistic
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Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman retweeted
It looks as if central bankers are failing to control contagion from bank failures. Their warm words are not enough. Urgent action is needed. @D_Blanchflower and I will have a statement demanding a 2% base rate cut this week plus universal 100% depositor guarantees very soon.
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Mkts pricing in probability of rates being where they are now (450-475%) of 3% and probs of 97% they will be lower
by December 2024 mkts pricing in probabilities of
325-350 0.4%
325-350 4.1%
350-375 16.1%
375-400 30.8%
400-425 30.4%
425-450 15%
450-475 3%
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Now markets in the US are pricing in rate cuts first in the June meeting and three y the end of the year
Too little too late gotta cut this week by a lot
cmegroup.com/markets/interes…
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Hunt's austerity budget now shown to be an utter disasters monetary and financial conditions around the world have tightened. This makes it even more important that MPC cuts rates by 150bp this week and Hunt announces a new budget to prevent deep recession as risk premium jumps
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