What are the inviolable constraints on the Global Financial Markets and the Global Economy?
Joined March 2019
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Per CNBC, 40% of investors who took money out of the market in the past year regret it. Even though the market is down year over year and breadth has collapsed.
They have what I call FOMC: Fear Of Missing Crash
cnbc.com/2022/05/16/nearly-4…
Which stock markets are in correction/bear-market territory?
Source: @SPGlobalRatings
Today's issue of The Daily Shot Brief: dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily…
Invariant Perspective retweeted
🇺🇸 Inflation
US bond market expectations for inflation are substantially lower. Will the Fed be slightly more dovish than expected?
👉 isabelnet.com/?s=inflation
h/t @SoberLook #markets #bonds #treasuries #Fed #Fedfunds
#inflation #cpi #rates #interestrates #bondmarket #investing
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'Raging inflation cuts into consumers' discretionary spending.' thedailyshot.com/2022/05/16/… via @SoberLook
1. The next couple of months will be the most difficult ones of our lives. I have no desire to hide the truth and to lie to the public. Although these facts are unpleasant and terrifying, this is the true situation.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis
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Invariant Perspective retweeted
As we wrote in our data release last month, @ChinaBeigeBook’s April data showed the most deterioration in economic conditions since the initial Covid lockdowns of 2020.
#China's economic data disappoints in April as Covid curbs bite. Retail sales & industrial production drop far worse than expectations cnb.cx/3liHKBS
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#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition
Bulls, contrary to popular bull shit, the only thing that can save you now is Fed bailout. Fundamentals are recession in housing bubble. And technicals are Y2K 2.0.
Since stocks peaked and crashed, the Fed's own stress index has DECLINED.
BTFD is sending an "all clear" message.
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Invariant Perspective retweeted
JUST IN:
It appears that Terra, $LUNA / $UST, operators allowed select holders to cash out at near $1, before it collapsed to nearly worthless on secondary markets.
The whales were saved, and it appears retail held the back instead.
This is inexcusable.
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Invariant Perspective retweeted
👇🏾= great analysis by one of the best Macro analysts on Global Wall St.
FWIW, we think the reset is closer to “just getting started” than it is to being “over”. The earnings 👞 has yet to drop. It will. Refer to slides 79-97 of our May-22 Macro Scouting Report for more details.
Crossroads: If the stock market correction is a valuation reset driven by tightening liquidity, then the 19.9% decline in the S&P 500 (using intraday values) gets us back to roughly fair value. If the market also has an earnings problem, then this reset is not over.
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TURKEY'S ERDOGAN SAYS SWEDISH, FINNISH FOREIGN MINISTERS SHOULD NOT BOTHER COMING TO TURKEY TO CONVINCE TURKEY TO APPROVE THEIR NATO BIDS
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#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition
SCE HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SURVEY
Median monthly household spending growth increased to 7.8 percent year over year in April, up from 5.1 percent in December.
nyfed.org/3EyKymY
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Mester off the rails! Last week, she said the current quarter could print negative, flagging a second consecutive and technical (SSSSSHHHHHHH!) recession.
Fed's Mester not convinced inflation has peaked marketnews.com/mni-interview…
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Invariant Perspective retweeted
I joined @SaraEisen and Peter Hooper of @DeutscheBank, on @CNBC @ClosingBell to break down both sides of the #recession debate.
#RosenbergResearch #Economy
cnb.cx/3wz4q67
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#recession ... #Crypto #Bubble edition
#DEI $DEI #StableCoin #stablecoins #cryptocurrencies #Cryptocrash 📉
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Invariant Perspective retweeted
JUST IN:
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a bet against Apple, $AAPL.
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