Monkeypox projections Now we probably have enough data to model MPX cases forwards in the short term. *IF* the current trend continues, we would expect to see 100k worldwide by August, and the first million in September.

Jun 29, 2022 · 12:10 AM UTC

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We are definitely in the unmitigated spread phase of this outbreak which should follow consistent exponential spread Rt=R0 for some time. It will be interesting to see if Rt slows down once it spreads beyond high risk demographics
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We do seem to be falling into the same familiar traps of Feb 2020, using only narrow case definitions for testing. Patients who present with telltale symptoms should always be tested, regardless of their sexual status or regardless of recent visits to Wuhan.
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The most optimistic scenario is this stays *primarily* a psuedo-sexually transmitted disease and does not spread well in schools or between adults without multiple partners. That could hugely limit the impact for small children, who are typically at greatest risk once infected.
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Updated data added to current model. Also included a lower bound for the current trajectory.
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Some have been asking for a view of this on a log scale. Cheers!
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Replying to @JPWeiland
RIP spring break 2023
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Replying to @JPWeiland
Up next: monkey pox shots.
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GIF
Smallpox vaxx works. But yeah, why wouldn't we vaccinated if it spreads widely? If I travel, I often get vaxxed for diseases in those countries. Don't you?
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