Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
Joined August 2008
Nate Silver retweeted
Replying to @NateSilver538
Yeah. Roe v. Wade’s repeal was a 50 year project for the GOP that involved recruiting for and winning a metric ton of elections, and that type of movement is not going to be countered by progressives in a day, especially given the current partisan balances.
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It's true in many aspects of life that having a longer time horizon is rewarding. But it's easy to forget that in politics especially in a social media era where you can get algorithmically-rewarded instant gratification.
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If you're a progressive concerned about conservative judicial overreach then frankly a) it's probably just getting started; b) there's not a lot you can do about it in the short term (other than win elections). So maybe it's time to expand the time horizon to 5, 10, 20 years.
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Good thread from yesterday. Under the 5-4 Roberts majority, the Court largely remained within broad guardrails of public opinion. With 6-3, it's not doing that, trust in the Court is way down in polls, and the consequences are hard to predict in the long term but may be profound.
History shows that the Supreme Court is not fully insulated from public opinion, and it can only push its luck so much before politicians get spurred by the public to react. They might do incalculable damage for a few sessions, but it's not a sustainable track to continue on.
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It's probably people with inside information not the oddsmakers per se.
Vegas might have missed on the Nets and Lakers, but the oddsmakers appear to have known something last night: Paolo Banchero just went No. 1 overall to Orlando. Couldn't top this draft board without a game against @csuf on your resume. More NBA from me: marcstein.substack.com
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I'm pro-sportsbetting in general but having markets on draft picks is a scandal waiting to happen.
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It's still something of an open question whether Trump would have won the GOP nomination in 2016 had the opposition not been so fragmented, so the fact that *one* clear alternative has already emerged for the next nomination, DeSantis, potentially makes 2024 a different story.
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In certain ways, Trump's position in the primary is most analogous to Hillary Clinton, and the question is whether it's 2008 or 2016.
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The idea that the US pandemic response was too disaggregated seems like a weird conclusion given the various screw-ups made by the CDC. Personally I thought the response by NYC (where I live) was much better than the federal response, for instance. news.yahoo.com/citing-disast…
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It's also more utility-maximizing. Given that there hard trade-offs in a pandemic, and also lots of cultural/geographic etc. variables in how the virus speads, tending to let New York City have a different response than South Dakota would seem much better than one-size-fits-all.
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Kind of wish I'd retained a better pre-COVID baseline for how often people cough and sneeze in public.
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Matching is easier on the Internet—e.g. finding a romantic partner who shares your personality and interests—but there's also nemesis matching. Twitter exposes you to people you'll find uniquely, incredibly, WTF-level annoying: your anti-soulmates.
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Oh shit now the AI has learned to feel the pain of rejection and/or how to make excuses to not call people on the phone.
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I'm skeptical of his national appeal (especially if he's challengng fellow Californian Kamala Harris) but the not-so-subtle subtext of these moves would seem to be that Newsom is testing the waters for a presidential run if Biden retires.
Within the last week, Newsom has: -vented about the nat'l Democratic party to @Elex_Michaelson nitter.fdn.fr/elex_michaelson/… -joined Truth Social to "call out Republican lies" -vented about the nat'l Democratic party's weakness to @RonBrownstein theatlantic.com/politics/arc…
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I think it's still under-appreciated how much opposition to Trump united the various subgroups of liberals, leftists, progressives and centrists. Once he was no longer president, they not only lost that lodestar; they also have 4 years of pent-up grievances to work through.
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👏 Mean-re-ver-sion [clap-clap clapclap-clap] 👏
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The lack of investment in next-gen vaccines, along with things like better ventilation, is aggravating. My semi-hot take is that both COVID hawks and doves associate COVID prevention with personal sacrifice and overlook win-win solutions that don't involve much sacrifice.
"These kinds of vaccines could buy us long-lasting protection against infections and disease. When combined together, our armamentarium for fighting Covid is growing" On the potential of nasal and pan-β-coronavirus vaccines nytimes.com/2022/06/13/opini… by @deeptabhattacha @nytopinion
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