PhD student @warstudies. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST, and @AlfaFellowship. Focused on Russian defense policy.

Joined November 2015
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I tried to explain Russia's rationale for its buildup near Ukraine in March-April. I argue that it was primarily a demonstration to deter the US from crossing Russia's red lines by threatening to asymmetrically escalate in Ukraine with military force. fpri.org/article/2021/08/rus…
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Erdogan trying to act as a player in the former Soviet Union is exactly what Putin is angry with, especially after the war in Karabakh and TB2 sales to Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, etc. This is part of the reason why Putin is trying to draw a red line in Ukraine.
Notable offer from Erdogan to mediate between #Russia and #Ukraine, as #Turkey has become increasingly active in the Eurasian space (including provision of TB2 drones to Kyiv) Erdogan: Turkey could mediate between Russia and Ukraine | Vestnik Kavkaza vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Erdo…
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Dmitry Peskov: "We are afraid, and we have already said this, that these allegations might be meant to hide [Ukraine’s] own preparations for a force scenario in Donbass. It would be utter recklessness." 112/ tass.com/politics/1367559?ut…
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Lukashenko said Belarus will not remain on the sidelines if there is a new war in the Donbas, "and it is clear whose side we will be on." 113/ tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-pano…
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Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said Belarus and Russia are planning on holding a joint exercise on Belarus's southern border with Ukraine. 114/ tass.com/defense/1367863
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The Russian MID's Alexander Sternik said they are concerned by threats from AFG to Central Asia, but they are taking preventative measures including exchanging information, conducting joint exercises, and providing arms to Central Asian countries. 329/ militarynews.ru/story.asp?ri…
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Russia's 201st Military Base in Tajikistan will conduct 40 exercises during the winter training period. 330/ militarynews.ru/story.asp?ri…
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The Russian MoD said the Admiral Gorshkov Project 22350 frigate conducted another successful launch of the Tsirkon hypersonic missile at a target at a distance of 400km in the White Sea. 32/ m.tvzvezda.ru/news/202111291…
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Wagner private military contractors in Syria. 132/ t.me/grey_zone/11355
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None of the weapons NATO is providing to Kyiv is a game-changer, but I think Russia wants to stop this support before it includes things like long-range missiles or missile defense. If Russia decides to escalate, they'll destroy Ukraine's TB2 on the ground in the first 30 minutes
Ukraine’s use of Turkish drones could be a complete game-changer, which is why Moscow seems so preoccupied with this issue.
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People have a false perception of how effective TB2 and other UCAVs would be against the best militaries because they've only been used against insurgent groups or relatively weak militaries with limited fires capabilities/air defenses. 2/
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TB2 UCAVs played a key role in the 2nd Karabakh War last year, and Armenia sustained very heavy equipment losses in the first 30 minutes. But much of these losses came from Azerbaijani MLRS and ground-based fires that had GPS locations for Armenian artillery and air defenses. 3/
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In 2020 Turkey still lost at least 2 TB2 in Karabakh, 5 TB2 or Anka UCAVs in Idlib, and 10-20 in Libya against much less capable air defenses (often single SHORAD systems operating independently). Turkey could sustain those losses because they had >100 UCAVs in service. 4/
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4 destroyed MAZ Az in Varanda (Fizuli) in part of Second Artsakh war. Follow my tg channel t.me/utdarm United Armenia. @Danspiun @TheDeadDistrict @RALee85 @Rebel44CZ @jpg2t785 @CaricaMil @oryxspioenkop @Ninja998998 @Archer83Able #Artsakh
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The line up of vehicles from the Military Industrial Company's Arzamas Machine-Building Plant. From R to L, K-17 Bumerang, BTR-82, VPK-Ural, Atlet, Strela, VPK-233136 Tigr Buggy. Note, how much higher the Bumerang's silhoutte is compared to the BTR-82. 5/ tvzvezda.ru/news/20211127171…
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The K-17 Bumerang IFV looks pretty much the same as before. Maybe the K-16 APC variant of the Bumerang is the only one to receive the greater armor. 6/
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