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Markets Columnist @Reuters

The Good Day Sunshine State
Joined April 2011
Jamie McGeever retweeted
I just want to make a few things clear: The Holocaust happened. Hitler was a demonic figure. And instead of giving it a platform, our political leaders should be calling out and rejecting antisemitism wherever it hides. Silence is complicity.
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What many people saw as an open goal for Jay Powell yesterday, it seems he saw as a potential own goal. He didn't push back on the recent easing of US financial conditions .. and rightly so. COLUMN-Powell wisely passes up financial conditions 'open goal' reut.rs/3Ff7iK7
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Maeda in Spain, pasaporte especial 🇯🇵🇪🇸
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First the binge, then the overhang. US inventories have grown at a record pace, but demand is set to slow just as companies find themselves significantly over-stocked. COLUMN-Bloated U.S. inventories to drive incoming recession reut.rs/3H0PDbg
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Remarkably, the Dow Jones Industrials is now down less than 5% this year. That's largely due to the 20.4% surge over October and November which, even more remarkably, is the biggest 2-month rise since the summer of 1938.
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Dollar falls almost 5% in November, its biggest monthly loss since September 2010. Dollar had been on course for biggest annual rise since end of Bretton Woods over 50 years ago, but now up 'only' 10.5% YTD.
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Market reaction to Powell could not be clearer - investors like what they hear, and expect the Fed to take its foot off the hiking pedal soon. Wall Street reverses losses, Dow now +1%, S&P 500 +2%, Nasdaq +3%. Implied rates fall 4-10 bps, market sees 45 bps of easing next year
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Powell's challenge Since his Jackson Hole speech, Fed has raised rates 150 bps, US financial conditions tightened only 50 bps (as per GS FCI) Since S&P 500 low on Oct 13, financial conditions eased ~100 bps Since Fed's 75 bps hike on Nov 2, financial conditions eased 75 bps
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Jamie McGeever retweeted
So what?
According to the ONS figures, London, Manchester and Birmingham are now all minority white cities.
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Jamie McGeever retweeted
ECB not pulling its punches here. - Bitcoin is rarely used for legal transactions - Regulation can be misunderstood as approval - Promoting Bitcoin bears a reputational risk for banks
The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. #TheECBblog looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets. Read more ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/dat…
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More from Deutsche's 2023 outlook: major stock markets to plunge 25% from just above current levels when US recession hits, then fully recover by year-end "assuming the recession lasts only several quarters."
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Interesting 2023 call from Deutsche Bank - US economy to shrink twice as fast next year as euro zone. It sees US GDP falling 2%, euro zone down 1%. Also sees global GDP growth slowing to around 2% next year, "a rate that has historically been labeled recessionary."
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As Wall Street reopens after Thanksgiving, investors are looking for one final push to ensure 2022 ends up being merely grim rather than the bloodbath most had feared. With @RyanDetrick COLUMN-Wall Street gives thanks, eyes year-end whoosh reut.rs/3F3K2Q6
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This is who Donald Trump just had dinner with: “This is going to be the most racist, sexist, anti-semitic, holocaust-denying, speech in all of Dallas this weekend!” Elon Musk is also lifting his permanent twitter ban because free speech.
Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦
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Wall Street welcomes dovish Fed minutes as Nasdaq jumps 1%, the Dow hits highest since April. But the bond market is more cautious as yield curves go even more inverted. This line from the minutes is critical - Fed officials see recession next year as almost base case scenario.
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Oil's inflationary impulse continues to wane, and will soon evaporate completely - Brent crude now only 3% higher than it was a year ago, compared to over 100% in March.
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Is this the pivot markets have been waiting for? "Substantial majority" of Fed officials say a slowing in the pace of rate hikes will be appropriate soon, minutes of the Nov. 1-2 FOMC meeting show.
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Wall Street extends gains - Nasdaq now +1%, S&P 500 +0.7% - after FOMC minutes, yields retreat, and likelihood of a 50 bps hike next month strengthens.
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S&P 500 highest in two and a half months following FOMC minutes, rising further above 4000.
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Another day, another deepening of the U.S. yield curve inversion. The 1y/30y part of the curve is now inverted by more than 100 bps and the 6m/30y segment is getting there - currently -94 bps.
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