Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation, causal identification. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. He/Him

Washington, DC
Joined March 2009
.@Survey160 is hiring! We're looking for analysts and part-time senior analysts to help with our work on text message surveys. If you have questions or are interested, @ me or DM me, or see the full job listings here: survey160.com/jobs
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Live shot of Liz Cheney
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Kevin Collins retweeted
Let's go, fellow Dads.
The 28-pt shift among Dads towards Democrats in the Fox poll doesn’t appear to be a blip. It happened consistently, over time: May to June: +11D May to July: +17D May to August: +28D Any predictions on how far this could go by November? 💃
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Kevin Collins retweeted
"Existing research has been too quick to explain selective attribution in terms of partisan-motivated reasoning. We find stronger evidence for an explanation rooted in beliefs about presidential competence" 👇
Please make room for one more COVID paper: "Partisan Selectivity in Blame Attribution: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic" Recently accepted @apsrjournal. Near-final preprint: osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/t8… My coauthor Shikhar Singh (@shikhar_46) is on the job market! [1/6]
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Kevin Collins retweeted
Amazing work from @vest_team. A gold mine of data for elections scholars and journalists.
It's finally here! 🥳 A national precinct map! Explore the 2020 presidential election here ufl.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web…
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At some point I'm going to conclude that this is a bit. But in case Mr. Yang is really as misinformed as he appears, the Weimar Republic was a multiparty democracy until Adolf Hitler and his Nazi party rose to power (and ended the democracy) encyclopedia.ushmm.org/conte…
Replying to @AndrewYang
Also a multi-party system would be much less susceptible to the rise of authoritarianism because you would need 2 parties to get on board instead of just 1.
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Look, I think electoral systems with 3rd parties have a lot to recommend them. But the way you get those 3rd parties -- at least ones that operate in a sustained and successful way -- isn't by just saying "we should have more parties", but rather by changing the electoral system
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The problem with GOP primary election outcomes lies with GOP primary voters, not the other party that isn’t voting in those elections
Looking forward to the DCCC somehow being blamed for Liz Cheney’s loss tonight.
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Kevin Collins retweeted
We have a new working paper out based on a large collaborative field experiment, where real constituents wrote to their MPs. We find that MPs don’t blame party leadership more when asked to communicate incongruent positions across a range of issues. Check out @DanBischof’s 🧵 👇
🚨Super excited to share this "new" working paper after so many years!🚨 🧐How do legislators respond to constituents' requests? And do they use their party as a shield when constituents disagree with them?🧐 PDF: osf.io/z8ycg/ #PoliSciResearch 🧵
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Genuine question: why would someone who is no longer employed by the US Government have an active diplomatic passport?
FBI returned Trump’s one expired passport today. The email to his lawyers references a “filter team,” which means there is a team weeding out privileged and other material, per email released by Trump spokesman earlier
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And to think, he could have been spotted at Four Seasons Total Landscaping in Philly. Nah, Oz wouldn’t be caught anywhere near Philadelphia
SPOTTED: Dr. Mehmet Oz, the GOP candidate in the PA Senate race, attending Leader McCarthy’s annual l event at the Four Seasons resort in Jackson, Wyoming tonight. He joins other House members, donors, operatives, etc. He’s racing ag. Dem candidate John Fetterman for the seat.
I think this analysis is misguided, and grounded in a misreading of the 2016 GOP primary. The problem wasn't that there wasn't an not-Trump candidate splitting the field -- polling showed Trump was often the second choice of his opponent's supporters
This will work out exactly as planned, I’m sure, and won’t splinter the not-Trump vote at all.
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Rather, what was missing was not a Not Trump candidate, but an Anti Trump candidate. His major opponents spent more time targeting each other than they did targeting Trump.
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Frankly, I think a GOP candidate like Cheney (prominent enough to raise money for ads, and get on primary debate stages) making stopping Trump a one-issue campaign could be quite effective, albeit probably to the benefit of DeSantis or someone else
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Were these passports all issued by the United States of America?
is the former president a flight risk?
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There is so much state by state variation in timing between primary and general elections. Has anyone evaluated how this covaries with candidate quality, deviation in election outcomes from baseline partisanship, fundraising/spending, or other quantities of interest ?
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Thread. Stand tall and proud, Democrats.
The actualization of campaigns isn't always instant. Progress takes time. I'm grateful to have worked to elect the decisive votes in the Senate, House and presidency through @prioritiesusa Here are many of the things Democrats have accomplished thanks to the Biden coalition:
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For starters, get a cart or a basket. And next, please tell me how you're going to eat the salsa with your asparagus spears
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