Lead for global trade @TheEIU, also covering China, Taiwan and Macau. Based in Hong Kong. Views my own.

Hong Kong
Joined June 2017
“The test for freight rates will come in a few weeks when the peak season is in full swing,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Denmark-based Vespucci Maritime. “If spot rates don’t go up in the summer, it will be a strong sign that demand is falling. wsj.com/articles/one-price-d…
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Hong Kong’s Jumbo Kingdom floating restaurant, towed away from Aberdeen Harbour last week, has sunk in the South China Sea in 1km-deep waters near the Parcel Islands after taking on water then capsizing. No crew were lost. Hong Kong’s latest piece of underwater cultural heritage.
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Nick Marro retweeted
#China’s mobile phone shipment fell 9.4% in May as local vendors saw ~1/3 of the shipment gone yoy, govt data show. Chinese brands will need some eye-catching features to attract buyers before busy season. Or, I’m afraid they will have to lower the already thin margin to nothing.
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TSMC CEO: The node with the most shortage today isn't 5nm : it's 55-65nm. Typically no-one increases volume on mature nodes as initial ramp is the expected peak - with the increased demand in edge devices means we're increasing mature node capacity.
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Nick Marro retweeted
Sanctions work, at least on cotton. “Xinjiang cotton used to be the most expensive cotton in the world. Now it has become the cheapest, and still no one buys it,” said the owner of a cotton-ginning mill in southern Xinjiang, scmp.com/economy/china-econo…
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China consumer confidence plunged most ever since 1992, almost fell through the chart. Yet industrial output resilient. They used to be highly correlated. Odd. 中国消费者信心暴跌程度30年历史之最,快跌穿图底了。但工业产出却坚韧超预期。这些曾是高度相关的数据。为什么?
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Who in this city—except the most privileged among us—has more than one toilet in their apartment?
Households with confirmed COVID-19 cases and only one toilet will be sent to govt quarantine facilities instead of being allowed home Q/isolation. Sec. for Food & Health, Sophia Chan: "This is very important. It is to safeguard the health of the patient and his or her family."
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This is undoubtedly good news. But the report's timeframe only goes until 2020, so it doesn't capture the explosion in industrial activity in 2021, nor the de-prioritization of green targets over the next 5-10 years (in favor of growth) from early 2022... bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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According to this, HK textbooks are now teaching HK was never a colony because it was stricken from the UN “list of colonies” in 1972. This was in fact a list of Non-Self-Governing Territories, and Beijing had HK removed because UN resolutions promised self-determination to NSGTs
【香港修訂新版公民科教科書,稱 「香港不曾是英國殖民地」】 香港通識教育在2019年反修例運動期間受到受到不少建制派批評,其後更更名成「公民科」,大幅修改課程內容,據報導,新版公民科教材6套教科書中有4套有「香港不曾殖民地」的表述。
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Another sign that we’ve long moved beyond politics and headfirst into idiocy — Hong Kong was not British colony as China did not recognise unequal treaties ceding city to Britain, new textbooks reveal scmp.com/news/hong-kong/educ…
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Nick Marro retweeted
The global flight from Chinese stocks during the rout earlier this year has reversed as investors bet the world's second-largest economy can recover on.ft.com/3MLRSyk
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Insanity
Flying out from Pudong airport today. Made a perilous escape from Shanghai. We were working from home Tuesday afternoon when we suddenly got a call from our compound manager, who knew we were flying out Friday, saying we had better get out ASAP.
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Nick Marro retweeted
Something is not quite right about the new lockdowns across Shanghai. 10 transmissions in the community reported since June 3 (in a city of 25m). None yesterday. And yet I have heard from six different people who have had their compounds locked down again due to a "close contact"
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We're not convinced that zero-covid induced supply chain disruptions will prompt a foreign investor exodus out of China. But, the likelihood of CN's covid policies persisting (at least?) until 2023 has consequences for new investment... to the benefit of Southeast Asia
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Full analysis for EIU subscribers (🔒) here: viewpoint.eiu.com/analysis/a…
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I’ve never understood this. Even if an invasion *doesn’t* destroy TSMC (either indirectly or via sabotage), in what world would any remnants of the company—or its supply chain partners, esp US/EU firms—then collaborate with a Chinese invasion force? bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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