In purgatory for atypical sartorial choices.

London via Brittany
Joined February 2009
With sound
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tanguy bretagne / bzh macro retweeted
"Pense à ne pas m'oublier." Le dernier dessin de Sempé paru dans "Paris Match" la semaine dernière.
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Quick take on CPI: - Trimmed mean still above Core CPI. - Rents are still sky high on a quarterly basis roughly everywhere. - Some cities still show a lot of pressure. As the ads say on my youtube feed: "rent are bananas, but refurbed apple is affordable".
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Cf the NFP data I was h/t last week showing women coming back to healthcare yet wages still not that high in that field. Continued wage pressure to be expected. H/t @jasonfurman
Replying to @AE_Konkel
Healthcare makes a strong showing among occupational sectors most frequently advertising signing bonuses, with nursing taking the top spot. This past July, nearly 20% of nursing job postings advertised signing bonuses. hiringlab.org/2022/08/09/rec… 2/
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Going to drop one chart before heading to the pub on the jobs report. There is a big rotation back into healthcare for women, Wages there have been somehow lagging. With a missing 1m women there (pre covid trend dashed) pressure will stay. cc @jasonfurman @RobinBrooksIIF
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tanguy bretagne / bzh macro retweeted
New: Parl has ruled drug pricing inflation rebate can only apply to Medicare, not private insurance market, per source familiar This is not super surprising, but it does narrow the bill somewhat
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I agree with David. Looking at the US data (for lack of UK one) we can see it's the lower income who are predominenly hurt by inflation. We might have this idea "we're all in the same boat" from our covid days, but it's the low inc who struggle to pay rent and food, not the high.
It’s clear that more support is going to be needed beyond what has already been announced. Relying only on tax cuts has a number of problems. /1
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As such tax cuts are a bad idea and handouts would be the best approach. Targeted, limited in time so people understand this is a “temporary” measure which reflects the “temporary” nature of high inflation. Other inc brackets have more scope to adapt their consumption.
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Interesting to think about why Putin can slowly cripple the european economy. He has time on his hands until the conflict escalates
La temporalité de la guerre côté russe. Comment la Russie inscrit-elle la guerre contre l'Ukraine dans un horizon temporel? Très différemment des Ukrainiens, et avec une distinction forte entre les dirigeants et la population. D'abord, la population russe. 🧶1/14
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Really nice job report. Couple things to note: - quits are still running hot at 2.9% and wages trend is too - women are moving back into healthcare, so nobody is really leaving the workforce, it's just realloc; Amazon & Co could get rid of 1m women, they'll find a job easily. -
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Great data investigation into property investment by OpenDoor. I think that would make a great OddLots podcast with some real estate specialist. Maybe @RickPalaciosJr ?
ahead of the $open earnings call tomorrow, a story 🧵 the house across the street from me in Las Vegas has been for sale for a while. out of curiosity, i checked the @Zillow price history.
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Just saying, she makes more than $50k a year
"I don't feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough... I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don't find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough." - SF Fed President Mary Daly
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tanguy bretagne / bzh macro retweeted
While China Twitter’s focus was (rightly) on Taiwan, a curious thing happened in the interbank market. The 7d repo rate fell sharply despite the PBoC draining some liquidity, suggesting weak credit demand. Maybe due to the Politburo’s disappointing statement last week. 1/
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For the worriers on the US economy and the leverage. The NY Fed survey of househoold credit shows we're still at pretty quiet levels. No sign of bloating the cards to face a downturn.
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The issue is that a large part of the world thinks like him, as seen per the lack of support for Ukraine in most of the developing world. And it still feeds strongly in the debate of developed world as seen with @JLMelenchon in France for example. That’s why a Taiwan invasion
Labour’s former leader Jeremy Corbyn condemning Britain’s crucial military aid to Ukraine in an interview he granted to a pro-Russian, pro-Assad, pro-Hezbollah, Iranian-linked propaganda media outlet. Yikes.
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By China would not be regarded necessarily as an “evil act”. One could point the US tech giants making sure to censor the independent Taiwan flag in their apps. The @SpeakerPelosi trip is a terrible idea in this environment. Escalation is a real risk.
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tanguy bretagne / bzh macro retweeted
🇯🇵 At some point, the @Bank_of_Japan_e will need to acknowledge that #Japan is exiting deflation state. Because it's happening.
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One of the things which is important to realise is nobody has a clue about the short term. Market, policy makers, economists, etc... Here is how wide the ECB profesional forecasters have the year ahead inflation range. 140bp! It shows how "lost" we are.
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There's no one to blame. We live extraordinary circumstances. And all the "Fed behind the curve", "ECB should have killed fwd guidance early" etc make me chuckle. It's tough and macro hedge funds are not up 50% like in 2008.
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I'll continue digging but I think inflation fighting will remain the most pressing issue. Happy to get thoughts and messages. Going to get the dog from the vet and that is my most pressing issue.
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